23 April 2026
Unearthing the known unknowns
A joint workshop on climate cooling and tipping points
Climate cooling approaches, also known as Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) or climate interventions, are a set of approaches designed to cool the planet on timescales faster than decarbonisation. Decarbonisation remains the only long term solution to the climate crisis, but as the planet continues to warm, interest in SRM, from both public and private actors, has grown. However, society still does not have a sufficient understanding of the physical impacts of SRM nor a solid grasp of the governance mechanisms needed to know whether SRM could ever be done safely, responsibly, or equitably.
At the same time, our planet’s increasing temperatures are putting society at risk of crossing a number of climate tipping points. Tipping points occur when change in part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a critical threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, frequently abrupt, and often irreversible impacts. These are non-linear changes to our climate that are distinct from warming temperatures, events such as the collapse of key ocean currents, the death of vast coral reefs, or the melting of ice sheets are all potential climate tipping points that humanity could face in the next century.
As global temperatures rise, these two scientific disciplines are becoming entwined as people ask questions such as “could SRM stop or halt the onset of climate tipping points?”. Behind these seemingly simple questions lie a complex web of scientific and ethical research questions – questions that society must try to answer if we are to better understand how key components of the climate system will interact under uncertain futures.
Reflecting on a year of activity across our Exploring Climate Cooling and Forecasting Tipping Points programmes, we noticed a significant disconnect between these two research fields, ultimately creating a simplified narrative around the complex interaction of SRM and tipping points, and leaving policymakers without the holistic insights needed to make informed decisions. That’s why ARIA invited world-leading scientific experts from both of these communities for a 2-day workshop held under Chatham house rules. The goal of this workshop was not just to surface the critical research questions on the interaction of SRM and tipping points, it was to bring these two communities together, to meet and discuss their shared scientific interests.This was a scientific meeting first and foremost, however the meeting emphasised that any comprehensive discussion about SRM and tipping points is not complete without the full consideration of governance and ethical issues, and by acknowledging those most affected by climate change when designing any potential research agenda.
Over the two days, participants had the space to build common understanding and forge new potential research collaborations, as well as spend structured time learning about each other’s work and formulating a shared research agenda.
The workshop ended with 3 key outcomes:
- The first, was the identification of key research questions across biosphere, cryosphere, and ocean tipping domains. These broadly considered the impact of SRM on tipping dynamics, the likelihood of SRM to exacerbate existing tipping points, and the timescales relevant to these dynamics - as well as practical questions relating to the robustness of our scientific evidence across models, observations and theory.
- Secondly, the community came together as one to propose conducting a structured expert elicitation process. While ARIA has not committed to funding the elicitation at this stage, we recognise the community's proposal as a valuable roadmap for the near-term research priorities.
- And finally, some of the scientists that gathered at the workshop have already begun to collaborate further, including formulating plans to host workshops at future conferences and potentially writing a more detailed scientific white paper. The hope is that these collaborations continue, fostering a new scientific community of researchers interested in better understanding the interaction between SRM and tipping points.